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5G brings 60 billion PCB incremental opportunities

 

It is estimated that 5G will bring more than 60 billion incremental opportunities for PCB boards. Caitong Securities Research Report pointed out that the evolution of communication technology brought by 5G will eventually be reflected in the replacement and reconstruction of communication facilities, which will inevitably bring growth opportunities to the related electronic components industry.

 

As the "mother of electronic products", PCB boards will benefit the PCB industry as a result of profound changes in the downstream. 5G construction will undoubtedly become an important driving force for the growth of the PCB industry in the next 2-3 years.

 

In terms of total volume, the wave of replacements triggered by 5G first drove the demand for PCB board shipments. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology predicts that 5G mobile phones will be launched in the second half of 2019, considering that 5G mobile phones still need to be compatible with 4G in the early stage and are more difficult than 4G mobile phones. Therefore, it is expected that domestic mobile phone shipments in 2022 are expected to reach 574 million units, and 5G mobile phone shipments will reach 144 million units.

 

In addition, as 5G uses high frequency bands for signal transmission, the number of base stations will increase significantly. There are two ways to increase base stations: macro base stations and small base stations. According to the "2018 China 5G Industry and Application Development White Paper" released by CCID Consulting, it is estimated that the increment of 5G macro stations will reach 3.6-5 million, the number of small base stations will reach 7.2-10 million, and the total number of base stations will be 4G. 3.3-4.6 times the base station, laying a huge room for growth.

 

From the perspective of unit consumption, due to the explosion of information and the demand for high transmission rates in the 5G era, the large-scale application of Massive MIMO has led to an increase in antennas, which will generate greater demand for PCB boards, and the increase in PCB board area will open up wider growth. space.

 

In addition, due to the high frequency of 5G, the PCB board is forced to become high-frequency. The current mainstream solution for base station antennas is PCB board with hydrocarbon materials. The price is about 3000-6000 yuan/square meter, and the price of ordinary PCB is about 1900 yuan/square meter. Meter, the unit value is increased by 1.5-3 times, and the veneer value is greatly increased.

 

In addition, starting from commercial use in 2020, the number of 5G connections in my country will reach 428 million by 2025, and the five-year compound growth rate will reach 155.61%. The data demand blowout forces communication equipment to increase the data processing capacity, and the corresponding PCB board is expected to develop into multilayer, and the price will increase accordingly.

 

Caitong Securities stated that the changes in the construction of base stations brought about by technological innovation in the 5G era will create a new incremental market for electronic products, and PCB as a carrier of components will benefit profoundly. According to conservative estimates, the incremental space created by 5G for PCB will reach 61.8 billion within five years, and my country's PCB industry is expected to usher in massive growth opportunities.